When the consensus is wrong, the spread is in being early and loud. We size up where the room is small and lever down when the room gets crowded.
We size up where the consensus is thin. Self-storage in 2017. Datacenter real estate in 2021. Neurodevelopmental care in 2022.
When the trade gets popular, we get smaller. Conviction is sized inversely to confidence.
We say it out loud. The annual letter has a section for it, and most of the lessons we trade on came from there.